The following analysis is based on the following blog post we published on March 2019:
Bitcoin Fundamental Analysis and Market Cycles
In our research, we have found that every previous four-year period between halvings can be divided into 3 distinct phases of roughly similar duration (~16 months for each phase), as can be seen in Figures 1 – 3.
These 3 phases are:
Based on this analysis, we managed to time the bottom that occured on December last year:
Q4 2018 Crypto Market Overview – The Bottom is In
Based on the above market cycles theory, we made the following comparisons between the current and previous cycles:
In Figure 4, we divided the current price by BTC’s price 4 years ago. We can see that current cycle price ratio went up as high 50, but corrected back down to ~20.
Calculating the rolling average, we get ~25 price ratio, as can be seen in Figure 5.
In Figure 6, we can see both cycles price curves on the same chart, starting from the bottom of each cycle. Amazingly enough, we can see that despite the bull run at the beginning of 2019, price has now fully reverted to the levels of the previous cycle.
Lastly, In Figure 7, we can see where we are in terms of the bull run stage – it is still early!
Based on this analysis, we can make the following conclusions:
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